Report Warns Californians: Gas Crisis Ahead

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Report Warns Californians: Gas Crisis Ahead

Price Shocks and Shortages Predicted as Demand Surpasses Supply

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA, Jul. 25 -/E-Wire/-- California is headed for a second energy crisis, according to Over a Barrel: How to Avoid California's Second Energy Crisis, a new report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists and Surface Transportation Policy Project. Despite the recent drop in prices at the pump, California is on a path to gasoline shortages and price shocks that could hit as early as next spring. To avoid this potential crisis, California must begin reducing its demand for gasoline.

Demand for gasoline has steadily increased over the past decade and will soon surpass supply. With refinery control limited to a handful of companies, the market is vulnerable to manipulation. The phaseout of MTBE, expected to begin next year, will only accelerate the situation.

"California's demand for gasoline is on a collision course with supply," said Julia Levin, an author of the report and California Policy Coordinator at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "If immediate steps aren't taken, we could experience shortfalls and soaring prices within the next year."

The combination of less efficient vehicles and increased driving has propelled California's growing demand for gasoline. The sales boom of SUVs and light trucks has dragged down the average fuel economy of California's automobiles. Between 1990 and 2000, the percentage of light trucks on California's roads climbed from 27 percent to 35 percent. Because light trucks are held to a 25 percent lower fuel economy standard than cars, every year California spends an extra $2.4 billion in fuel costs and consumes an additional 1.5 billion gallons of gasoline, 11 percent of the state's total usage.

As vehicles have become less efficient, the average amount that Californians drive has increased steadily, outpacing the rate of population growth. Between 1970 and 1990, California's population grew 60 percent while vehicle miles traveled increased more than 100 percent. Sprawling development has reinforced Californians' reliance on automobiles and made it more difficult for Californians to use transportation alternatives such as mass transit, bicycling and walking.

"If current trends continue, California gasoline use will increase 43 percent by 2020," said Patricia Monahan, Senior Clean Vehicle Analyst at Union of Concerned Scientists and co-author of the report. "To defuse this time bomb, California must curb its demand for oil by using more fuel-efficient vehicles and alternative modes of transportation."

Installing fuel-efficient tires, servicing cars on a regular basis, and improving driving habits can cut California drivers' gasoline usage 10 percent or more. But greater reduction in demand requires action from policymakers. California should develop and expand consumer incentives for fuel efficient cars and trucks. In addition, by enacting legislation that requires California to regulate global warming emissions from motor vehicles, policymakers can help spur the increased use of alternative fuels and greater fuel economy across the automotive fleet.

"Policymakers hold the key to reducing gasoline demand," said Dan Jacobson, California Legislative Advocate at California Public Interest Research Group. "Consumer education, strong regulations, and market incentives can make a future of fuel efficient cars and trucks a reality."

Increasing fuel economy is not the only solution. As the state's population continues to soar, state and local agencies must pursue a "smart growth" approach that provides more housing choices that are closer to existing shops, schools and businesses. In addition, Californians must have better transportation choices including public transit and access to bike paths and safe pedestrian routes. All of these options help reduce the state's dependence on gasoline.

"Giving Californians better transportation choices cuts traffic, saves consumers money and protects public health," said James Corless, California Director of the Surface Transportation Policy Project and co-author of the report. "Californians must increase transportation alternatives and combat sprawl to reduce gasoline demand."

A copy of the report is available at www.ucsusa.org.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (www.ucsusa.org) is a nonprofit partnership of scientists and citizens combining rigorous scientific analysis, innovative policy development and effective citizen advocacy to achieve practical environmental solutions.

The Surface Transportation Policy Project (www.transact.org/ca/) is a national non-profit coalition of more than 200 professional, civic and community organizations working for a balanced transportation policy that protects neighborhoods, promotes social equity and makes communities more livable.

Environmental Media Services

http://http://ems.org

http://http://www.ucsusa.org

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